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Risk to water security for small islands: An assessment framework and application

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Author(s):   Holding S, Allen DM
Year:   2016
Journal:   Regional Environmental Change. 16 (3): 827-839



The freshwater resources of small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human stressors due to their limited extent and adaptive capacity. A water security approach is useful for effective management of the water resources; however, understanding risk to water security is critical in order to effectively plan and adapt to future changes. Currently available assessment tools generally do not incorporate risk and are not suitable for application on small islands, where the hydrogeological setting has unique vulnerabilities. The aim of this work is to provide a framework to characterize risk to water security for small islands. The risk assessment was developed using Andros Island, the Bahamas, as a case study area. Numerical modelling characterizes the response of the water system to potential future stressors related to climate change and human development, the results of which are integrated into the assessment framework. Based on risk assessment principles, indicators are determined for susceptibility, hazard threat, vulnerability and loss, in order to define the risk to water security. The resulting indicators are presented in geospatial maps that rank areas of risk to water security. These maps were provided to local water managers and policy-makers in the Bahamas as a tool to identify high-risk areas for near-term action and to inform long-term planning. The maps have also been used as a platform to engage local residents and raise awareness about the impact climate change and land-use activities may have on water security.

Resource Description

  • Exposure : What is this?

    weather or climate related pathway by which climate change affects health

    Sea Level Rise, Temperature, Water Security
  • Temperature: Heat
  • Geographic Feature: What is this?

    resource focuses on specific type of geography

    Freshwater, Island, Ocean/Coastal
  • Geographic Location: What is this?

    resource focuses on specific location

    Non-United States
  • Non-United States: Non-U.S. North America
  • Model/Methodology: What is this?

    type of model used or methodology development is a focus of resource

    Exposure Change Prediction
  • Model Timescale: What is this?

    how far into the future results of a model/analysis are projected

    Long-Term (>10 years)
  • Resource Type: What is this?

    format or standard characteristic of resource

    Research Article
  • Special Topics: What is this?

    related topics that intersect with those captured in other filters

    Adaptation, Communication
  • Adaptation: Vulnerability Assessment
  • Communication : Community, Disease Advocacy, or Non-Governmental, Policymaker
  • Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES)
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