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Your Environment. Your Health.

Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Author(s):   Parkinson SC, Johnson N, Rao ND, Jones B, Van Vliet MTH, Fricko O, Djilali N, Riahi K, Florke M
Year:   2016
Journal:   Environmental Modelling & Software. 85: 266-278



Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8 degrees global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2-4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource Description

  • Exposure : What is this?

    weather or climate related pathway by which climate change affects health

    Water Security
  • Geographic Location: What is this?

    resource focuses on specific location

    Global or Unspecified Location
  • Model/Methodology: What is this?

    type of model used or methodology development is a focus of resource

    Cost/Economic Impact, Exposure Change Prediction
  • Model Timescale: What is this?

    how far into the future results of a model/analysis are projected

    Long-Term (>10 years)
  • Resource Type: What is this?

    format or standard characteristic of resource

    Research Article
  • Special Topics: What is this?

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    Economic Impact
  • Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)
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