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Your Environment. Your Health.

Modeling the climatic suitability of leishmaniasis vector species in Europe

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Author(s):   Koch LK, Kochmann J, Klimpel S, Cunze S
Year:   2017
Journal:   Scientific Reports. 7 (1): 13325



Climate change will affect the geographical distribution of many species in the future. Phlebotomine sandflies are vector species for leishmaniasis, a tropical neglected disease. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modeling approach to project future changes in climatic suitability for ten vector competent sandfly species in Europe. Whereas the main area of sandfly distribution currently lies in the Mediterranean region, models generally projected a northwards expansion of areas with suitable climatic conditions for most species (P. alexandri, P. neglectus, P. papatasi, P. perfiliewi, P. tobbi) in the future. The range of distribution for only two species (P. ariasi, P. mascittii) was projected to decline in the future. According to our results, a higher number of vector competent species in Central Europe can generally be expected, assuming no limitations to dispersal. We recommend monitoring for the establishment of vector species, especially in areas with projected climatic suitability for multiple vector species, as a precautious strategy. An increased number of vector species, or a higher abundance of a single species, might result in a higher transmission risk of leishmaniasis, provided that the pathogens follow the projected range shifts.

Resource Description

  • Exposure : What is this?

    weather or climate related pathway by which climate change affects health

  • Temperature: Heat
  • Geographic Location: What is this?

    resource focuses on specific location

    Non-United States
  • Non-United States: Europe
  • Health Impact: What is this?

    specification of health effect or disease related to climate change exposure

    Infectious Disease
  • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
  • Vectorborne Disease: Fly-borne Disease
  • Fly-borne Disease: Leishmaniasis
  • Model/Methodology: What is this?

    type of model used or methodology development is a focus of resource

    Exposure Change Prediction, Outcome Change Prediction
  • Model Timescale: What is this?

    how far into the future results of a model/analysis are projected

    Long-Term (>10 years)
  • Resource Type: What is this?

    format or standard characteristic of resource

    Research Article
  • Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
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