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Your Environment. Your Health.

Mosquito-borne diseases: advances in modelling climate-change impacts

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Tjaden NB, Caminade C, Beierkuhnlein C, Thomas SM
Trends in Parasitology. 34 (3): 227-245

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.

Expand Collapse Abstract

Resource Description

    Precipitation, Seasonality, Temperature
    • Temperature: Heat
    Global or Unspecified Location
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
    Exposure Change Prediction, Methodology
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Review Article
    Research Gap
    Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
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