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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Dominant malaria vector species in Nigeria: Modelling potential distribution of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings with MaxEnt

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Akpan GE, Adepoju KA, Oladosu OR, Adelabu SA
2018
PLoS One. 13 (10): e0205233

Malaria is a major infectious disease that still affects nearly half of the world's population. Information on spatial distribution of malaria vector species is needed to improve malaria control efforts. In this study we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to estimate the potential distribution of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis in Nigeria. Species occurrence data collected during the period 1900-2010 was used together with 19 bioclimatic, landuse and terrain variables. Results show that these species are currently widespread across all ecological zones. Temperature fluctuation from mean diurnal temperature range, extreme temperature and precipitation conditions, high humidity in dry season from precipitation during warm months, and land use and land cover dynamics have the greatest influence on the current seasonal distribution of the Anopheles species. MaxEnt performed statistically significantly better than random with AUC approximately 0.7 for estimation of the Anopheles species environmental suitability, distribution and variable importance. This model result can contribute to surveillance efforts and control strategies for malaria eradication.

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Resource Description

    Meteorological Factor, Precipitation, Seasonality, Temperature
    General Geographic Feature
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Africa
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease: Mosquito-borne Disease
        • Mosquito-borne Disease: Malaria
        Mosquito-borne Disease
      Vectorborne Disease
    Outcome Change Prediction
    Research Article
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