Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal
Tularaemia is a vector-borne infectious disease. A large majority of cases transmitted to humans by blood-feeding arthropods occur during the summer season and is linked to increased temperatures. Therefore, the effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. In this report, we use simulated climate change scenario data and empirical data of temperatures critical to tularaemia transmission to forecast tularaemia outbreak activity. The five high-endemic counties: Dalarna, Gavleborg, Norrbotten, Varmland and Orebro represent only 14.6% of the total population of Sweden, but have recorded 40.1-81.1% of the number of annual human tularaemia in Sweden from 1997 until 2008. We project here earlier starts and a later termination of future tularaemia outbreaks for the time period 2010-2100. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gavleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Varmland) and Orebro municipality (Orebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 2 degrees C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. In contrast, an analysis of precipitation scenarios indicates fairly stable projected levels of precipitation during the summer months. Thus, there should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. In conclusion, the results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades.
Resource Description
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Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature
- Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature: Variability
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General Geographic Feature
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Non-United States
- Non-United States: Europe
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Infectious Disease
- Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
- Vectorborne Disease: Tick-borne Disease
- Tick-borne Disease: Other Tick-borne Disease, Specify
- Other Tick-borne Disease, Specify: Tularaemia
- Tick-borne Disease: Other Tick-borne Disease, Specify
- Vectorborne Disease: Tick-borne Disease
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Outcome Change Prediction
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Long-Term (>10 years)
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Research Article
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Adaptation
- Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Early Warning System, Vulnerability Assessment
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Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES), Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify