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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Zhang K, Li Y, Schwartz JD, O'Neill MS
2014
Environmental Research. 132: 350-359

Hot weather increases risk of mortality. Previous studies used different sets of weather variables to characterize heat stress, resulting in variation in heat-mortality associations depending on the metric used. We employed a statistical learning method - random forests - to examine which of the various weather variables had the greatest impact on heat-related mortality. We compiled a summertime daily weather and mortality counts dataset from four U.S. cities (Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ) from 1998 to 2006. A variety of weather variables were ranked in predicting deviation from typical daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts. Ranks of weather variables varied with city and health outcome. Apparent temperature appeared to be the most important predictor of heat-related mortality for all-cause mortality. Absolute humidity was, on average, most frequently selected as one of the top variables for all-cause mortality and seven cause-specific mortality categories. Our analysis affirms that apparent temperature is a reasonable variable for activating heat alerts and warnings, which are commonly based on predictions of total mortality in next few days. Additionally, absolute humidity should be included in future heat-health studies. Finally, random forests can be used to guide the choice of weather variables in heat epidemiology studies.

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Resource Description

    Meteorological Factor, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify
    • Meteorological Factor, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: Heat
    • Meteorological Factor, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: apparent temperature;dew point
    Urban
    United States
    Cardiovascular Impact, Injury, Respiratory Impact, Other Health Impact, Specify
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Injury, Respiratory Impact, Other Health Impact, Specify: Heart Attack/Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify
      • Heart Attack/Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify: cardiovascular disease mortality
      Cardiovascular Disease (other)
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Injury, Respiratory Impact, Other Health Impact, Specify: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Other Respiratory Impact, Specify
      • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Other Respiratory Impact, Specify: respiratory disease mortality
      Respiratory Condition (other)
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Injury, Respiratory Impact, Other Health Impact, Specify: heat related mortality
    Methodology
    Research Article
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