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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Sterk A, Schijven J, De Roda Husman AM, De Nijs T
2016
Water Research. 95: 90-102

Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited.

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Resource Description

    Precipitation, Seasonality, Temperature, Water Quality
    • Precipitation, Seasonality, Temperature, Water Quality: Heat
    • Precipitation, Seasonality, Temperature, Water Quality: Marine/Freshwater Pathogen
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Europe
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Zoonotic Disease
      • Zoonotic Disease: General Zoonotic Disease
      Zoonotic Disease
    Exposure Change Prediction
    Inter-Annual (1-10 years), Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation
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