Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal
BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16 degrees C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.
Resource Description
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Temperature, Water Quality
- Temperature, Water Quality: Heat
- Temperature, Water Quality: Marine/Freshwater Pathogen
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Non-United States
- Non-United States: Europe
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Infectious Disease
- Infectious Disease: Waterborne Disease
- Waterborne Disease: Vibrioses
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Exposure Change Prediction
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Long-Term (>10 years)
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Research Article
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Adaptation
- Adaptation: Early Warning System
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Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)