Title: Reducing COVID-19 quarantine with SARS-CoV-2 testing: a simulation study.

Authors: Peng, Bo; Zhou, Wen; Pettit, Rowland W; Yu, Patrick; Matos, Peter G; Greninger, Alexander L; McCashin, Julie; Amos, Christopher I

Published In BMJ Open, (2021 Jul 16)

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing on shortening the duration of quarantines for COVID-19 and to identify the most effective choices of testing schedules. DESIGN: We performed extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of quarantine strategies when one or more SARS-CoV-2 tests were administered during the quarantine. Simulations were based on statistical models for the transmissibility and viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the sensitivities of available testing methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of perturbations in model assumptions on the outcomes of optimal strategies. RESULTS: We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing can effectively reduce the length of a quarantine without compromising safety. A single reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) test performed before the end of quarantine can reduce quarantine duration to 10 days. Two tests can reduce the duration to 8 days, and three highly sensitive RT-PCR tests can justify a 6-day quarantine. More strategic testing schedules and longer quarantines are needed if tests are administered with less-sensitive RT-PCR tests or antigen tests. Shorter quarantines can be used for applications that tolerate a residual postquarantine transmission risk comparable to a 10-day quarantine. CONCLUSIONS: Testing could substantially reduce the length of isolation, reducing the physical and mental stress caused by lengthy quarantines. With increasing capacity and lowered costs of SARS-CoV-2 tests, test-assisted quarantines could be safer and more cost-effective than 14-day quarantines and warrant more widespread use.

PubMed ID: 34272225

MeSH Terms: COVID-19 Testing; COVID-19*; Computer Simulation; Humans; Quarantine*; SARS-CoV-2