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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal High-resolution spatiotemporal weather models for climate studies

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Johansson MA, Glass GE
2008
International Journal of Health Geographics. 7: 52

BACKGROUND: Climate may exert a strong influence on health, in particular on vector-borne infectious diseases whose vectors are intrinsically dependent on their environment. Although critical, linking climate variability to health outcomes is a difficult task. For some diseases in some areas, spatially and temporally explicit surveillance data are available, but comparable climate data usually are not. We utilize spatial models and limited weather observations in Puerto Rico to predict weather throughout the island on a scale compatible with the local dengue surveillance system. RESULTS: We predicted monthly mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, and cumulative precipitation at a resolution of 1,000 meters. Average root mean squared error in cross-validation was 1.24 degrees C for maximum temperature, 1.69 degrees C for minimum temperature, and 62.2 millimeters for precipitation. CONCLUSION: We present a methodology for efficient extrapolation of minimal weather observation data to a more meaningful geographical scale. This analysis will feed downstream studies of climatic effects on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. Additionally, we utilize conditional simulation so that model error may be robustly passed to future analyses.

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Resource Description

    Precipitation, Temperature
    • Precipitation, Temperature: Variability
    Ocean/Coastal, Tropical
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Non-U.S. North America
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease: Mosquito-borne Disease
        • Mosquito-borne Disease: Dengue
        Mosquito-borne Disease
      Vectorborne Disease
    Exposure Change Prediction, Methodology
    Inter-Annual (1-10 years)
    Research Article
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