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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, Daszak P
2008
Nature. 451 (7181): 990-993

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.

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Resource Description

    Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Precipitation, Temperature
    • Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Precipitation, Temperature: Variability
    General Geographic Feature
    Global or Unspecified Location
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: General Infectious Disease, Airborne Disease, Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease
      • General Infectious Disease, Airborne Disease, Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease: Tuberculosis, Other Airborne Disease, Specify
        • Tuberculosis, Other Airborne Disease, Specify: SARS
        Airborne Disease (other)
      • General Infectious Disease, Airborne Disease, Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease: General Vectorborne Disease, Mosquito-borne Disease
        • General Vectorborne Disease, Mosquito-borne Disease: Malaria
        Mosquito-borne Disease
      • General Infectious Disease, Airborne Disease, Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease: General Zoonotic Disease, Nipah Virus, Other Zoonotic Disease, Specify
        • General Zoonotic Disease, Nipah Virus, Other Zoonotic Disease, Specify: SARS
        Zoonotic Disease (other)
      Airborne DiseaseVectorborne DiseaseZoonotic Disease
    Exposure Change Prediction, Other Model/Methodology Type, Specify
    • Exposure Change Prediction, Other Model/Methodology Type, Specify: Emergence of infectious diseases
    Research Article, Review Article
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