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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Vulnerability of cattle production to climate change on U.S. rangelands

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Reeves MC, Bagne KE
2015

We examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 were projected from published models for four elements: forage quantity, vegetation type trajectory, heat stress, and forage variability. Departure of projections from a baseline (2001–2010) was used to estimate vulnerability. Projections show: (1) an increase in forage quantity in northerly regions, (2) a move toward grassier vegetation types overall but with considerable spatial heterogeneity, (3) a rapid increase in the number of heat-stress days across all regions, and (4) higher forage variability for most regions. Results are robust across multiple elements for declining production in southerly and western regions. In northern and interior regions, the benefits of increased net primary productivity or more grassy vegetation are mostly tempered by increases in heat stress and forage variability. Because projected directions of change differed, use of projections for only one element will limit our ability to anticipate impacts and manage for sustained cattle production.

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Resource Description

    Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Meteorological Factor, Temperature
    • Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Meteorological Factor, Temperature: Livestock/Game Food Security, Other Food Security, Specify
      • Livestock/Game Food Security, Other Food Security, Specify: Foreage Availability; Forage Variability
      Food security related issue (other)
    • Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Meteorological Factor, Temperature: Heat
    Forest, Grassland, Mountain, Other Geographic Feature, Specify
    • Forest, Grassland, Mountain, Other Geographic Feature, Specify: Rangeland
    United States
    Exposure Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Assessment/Book/Report
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Intervention
    Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify
    • Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify: General Circulation Model (GCM)
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