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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Climate change effects on plague and tularemia in the United States

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Nakazawa Y, Williams R, Peterson AT, Mead P, Staples E, Gage KL
2007
Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 7 (4): 529-540

Plague and tularemia are serious zoonotic diseases endemic to North America. We evaluated spatial patterns in their transmission in view of changing climates. First, we tested whether observed shifts since the 1960s are consistent with expected patterns of shift given known climate changes over that period. Then, we used general circulation model results summarizing global patterns of changing climates into the future to forecast likely shifts in patterns of transmission over the next 50 years. The results indicate that these diseases are indeed shifting in accord with patterns of climatic shift, but that overall geographic shifts will likely be subtle, with some northward movement of southern limits and possibly northward movement of northern limits as well.

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    Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify
    • Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: Variability
    • Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: evapotranspiration
    General Geographic Feature
    United States
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease: Tick-borne Disease
        • Tick-borne Disease: Plague
        Tick-borne Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease, Zoonotic Disease: Tularemia
      Vectorborne DiseaseZoonotic Disease
    Outcome Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Early Warning System, Vulnerability Assessment
    Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify
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