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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa

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Seo SN, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Hassan R, Kurukulasuriya P
2009
Environmental & Resource Economics. 43 (3): 313-332

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications "with" and "without" country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.

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Resource Description

    Ecosystem Change, Food Security
    • Ecosystem Change, Food Security: Crop/Plant Food Security, Livestock/Game Food Security
    Forest, Grassland, Other Geographic Feature, Specify
    • Forest, Grassland, Other Geographic Feature, Specify: Savannah;Forest
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Africa
    General Health Impact
    Exposure Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation, Communication, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population
    • Adaptation, Communication, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Resilience, Vulnerability Assessment
    • Adaptation, Communication, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Policymaker
    • Adaptation, Communication, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Mitigation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm
    • Adaptation, Communication, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Low Socioeconomic Status, Workers
    Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES), Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify
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