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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Sia Su GL
2008
Ambio. 37 (4): 292-294

Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended. © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2008.

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Resource Description

    Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature
    • Ecosystem Change, Precipitation, Temperature: Variability
    Tropical, Urban
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Asia
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease: Mosquito-borne Disease
        • Mosquito-borne Disease: Dengue
        Mosquito-borne Disease
      Vectorborne Disease
    Outcome Change Prediction
    Inter-Annual (1-10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Early Warning System, Vulnerability Assessment
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