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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal South African crop farming and climate change: An economic assessment of impacts

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Benhin JKA
2008
Global Environmental Change : Human and Policy Dimensions. 18 (4): 666-678

This paper assesses the economic impact of the expected adverse changes in the climate on crop farming in South Africa using a revised Ricardian model and data from farm household surveys, long-term climate data, major soils and runoffs. Mean annual estimates indicate that a 1% increase in temperature will lead to about US$ 80.00 increase in net crop revenue while a 1 mm/month fall in precipitation leads to US$ 2.00 fall, but with significant seasonal differences in impacts. There are also significant spatial differences and across the different farming systems. Using selected climate scenarios, the study predicts that crop net revenues are expected to fall by as much as 90% by 2100 with small-scale farmers been most affected. Policies therefore need to be fine-tuned and more focused to take advantage of the relative benefits across seasons, farming systems and spatially, and by so doing climate change may be beneficial rather than harmful.

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Resource Description

    Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Precipitation, Temperature, Water Security
    • Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Precipitation, Temperature, Water Security: Drought
    • Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Precipitation, Temperature, Water Security: Crop/Plant Food Security
    • Ecosystem Change, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Food Security, Precipitation, Temperature, Water Security: Variability
    Rural, Other Geographic Feature, Specify
    • Rural, Other Geographic Feature, Specify: Farmland
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Africa
    General Health Impact
    Cost/Economic Impact Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation, Vulnerable Population
    • Adaptation, Vulnerable Population: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Vulnerability Assessment
    • Adaptation, Vulnerable Population: Workers
    Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES)
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