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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Association of early annual peak influenza activity with El Nino southern oscillation in Japan

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Zaraket H, Saito R, Tanabe N, Taniguchi K, Suzuki H
2008
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. 2 (4): 127-130

BACKGROUND: Seasonality characterizing influenza epidemics suggests susceptibility to climate variation. El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), which involves two extreme events, El Nino and La Nina, is well-known for its large effects on inter-annual climate variability. The influence of ENSO on several diseases has been described. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we attempt to analyze the possible influence of ENSO on the timing of the annual influenza activity peak using influenza-like illness report data in Japan during 1983-2007. MATERIALS: Influenza surveillance data for 25 influenza epidemics, available under the National Epidemiological Surveillance of the Infectious Diseases, was used in this study. ENSO data were obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency. RESULTS: Influenza-like illness peak week varied largely during the study period, ranging between 4th and 11th weeks (middle of winter to early spring). The average of peak week during ENSO cycles (n = 11, average = 4.5 +/- 0.9) was significantly earlier than in non-ENSO years (n = 14, average = 7.6 +/- 2.9; P = 0.01), but there was no significant difference in the peak timing between hot (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) phases. Earlier peaks of influenza activity were observed in 16, out of 25, epidemics. These coincided with 10 (90.9%) out of 11 ENSO and 6 (85.7%) out of seven large-scale epidemics. CONCLUSION: Influenza activity peak occurred earlier in years associated with ENSO and/or large scale epidemics.

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Resource Description

    Sea Surface Oscillation, Temperature
    Ocean/Coastal
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Asia
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Airborne Disease
      • Airborne Disease: Influenza
      Airborne Disease
    Research Article
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Vulnerability Assessment
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