Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal
OBJECTIVES: This article aims to quantify the relationship between weather variations and bacillary dysentery in Jinan, a city in northern China with a temperate climate, to reach a better understanding of the effect of weather variations on enteric infections. METHODS: The weather variables and number of cases of bacillary dysentery during the period 1987-2000 has been studied on a monthly basis. The Spearman correlation between each weather variable and dysentery cases was conducted. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were used to perform the regression analyses. RESULTS: Maximum temperature (one-month lag), minimum temperature (one-month lag), rainfall (one-month lag), relative humidity (without lag), and air pressure (one-month lag) were all significantly correlated with the number of dysentery cases in Jinan. After controlling for the seasonality, lag time, and long-term trend, the SARIMA model suggested that a 1 degree C rise in maximum temperature might relate to more than 10% (95% confidence interval 10.19, 12.69) increase in the cases of bacillary dysentery in this city. CONCLUSIONS: Weather variations have already affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in China. Temperatures could be used as a predictor of the number of dysentery cases in a temperate city in northern China. Public health interventions should be undertaken at this stage to adapt and mitigate the possible consequences of climate change in the future.
Resource Description
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Meteorological Factor, Precipitation, Temperature
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General Geographic Feature
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Non-United States
- Non-United States: Asia
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Infectious Disease
- Infectious Disease: Foodborne Disease, Waterborne Disease
- Foodborne Disease, Waterborne Disease: Other Foodborne Disease, Specify, Diarrheal Disease, Unspecified
- Other Foodborne Disease, Specify, Diarrheal Disease, Unspecified: Bacillary Dysentery
- Foodborne Disease, Waterborne Disease: Diarrheal Disease, Unspecified, Other Waterborne Disease, Specify
- Diarrheal Disease, Unspecified, Other Waterborne Disease, Specify: Bacillary Dysentery
- Foodborne Disease, Waterborne Disease: Other Foodborne Disease, Specify, Diarrheal Disease, Unspecified
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Outcome Change Prediction
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Research Article
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Adaptation, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population
- Adaptation, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Vulnerability Assessment
- Adaptation, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, Vulnerable Population: Children, Low Socioeconomic Status