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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Zhou XN, Yang GJ, Yang K, Wang XH, Hong QB, Sun LP, Malone JB, Kristensen TK, Bergquist NR, Utzinger J
2008
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 78 (2): 188-194

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

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Resource Description

    Temperature
    General Geographic Feature
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Asia
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Waterborne Disease
      • Waterborne Disease: Schistosomiasis
      Waterborne Disease
    Exposure Change Prediction, Outcome Change Prediction
    Research Article
    Adaptation, Communication
    • Adaptation, Communication: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Vulnerability Assessment
    • Adaptation, Communication: Policymaker
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