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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Brunkard JM, Cifuentes E, Rothenberg SJ
2008
Salud P�blica De M�Xico. 50 (3): 227-234

Objective. The goal of this study was to assess linkages between microclimate and longer-term ENSO-related weather forcing on the week-to-week changes in dengue prevalence in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, over a recent decade of dengue observations. Material and Methods. An auto-regressive model to evaluate the role of climatic factors (sea-surface temperature) and weather (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation) on dengue incidence over the period 1995-2005, was developed by conducting time-series analysis. Results. Dengue incidence increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1) one week after every I C increase in weekly maximum temperature and increased 1.9% (95% CI:-0.1-3.9) two weeks after every 1 cm increase in weekly precipitation. Every 1 degrees C increase in sea surface temperatures (El Ni (n) over tildeo region 3.4) was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI:-4.7-43.5) increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later). Conclusions. Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico. This study may provide baseline information for identifying potential longer-term effects of global climate change on dengue expected in the coming decades. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the potential associations between climate and weather events and dengue incidence in this geographical area.

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Resource Description

    Sea Surface Oscillation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify
    • Sea Surface Oscillation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: Variability
    • Sea Surface Oscillation, Temperature, Other Exposure, Specify: sea surface temperature
    General Geographic Feature
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Non-U.S. North America
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
      • Vectorborne Disease: Mosquito-borne Disease
        • Mosquito-borne Disease: Dengue
        Mosquito-borne Disease
      Vectorborne Disease
    Outcome Change Prediction
    Inter-Annual (1-10 years)
    Research Article
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Early Warning System, Vulnerability Assessment
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