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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Asian aerosols: Current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Carmichael GR, Adhikary B, Kulkarni S, D'Allura A, Tang Y, Streets D, Zhang Q, Bond TC, Ramanathan V, Jamroensan A, Marrapu P
2009
Environmental Science & Technology. 43 (15): 5811-5817

Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.

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Resource Description

    Air Pollution
    • Air Pollution: Dust, Interaction with Temperature, Particulate Matter, Other Air Pollution, Specify
      • Dust, Interaction with Temperature, Particulate Matter, Other Air Pollution, Specify: black carbon; SO4 2-; aerosols
      Air Pollution (other)
    General Geographic Feature
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Asia
    Cardiovascular Impact, Respiratory Impact
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Respiratory Impact: Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify
      • Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify: cardiovascular mortality
      Cardiovascular Disease (other)
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Respiratory Impact: Other Respiratory Impact, Specify
      • Other Respiratory Impact, Specify: respiratory mortality; chronic respiratory mortality
      Respiratory Condition (other)
    Exposure Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Mitigation
    • Mitigation : Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm
    • Mitigation : Mitigation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm
    Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES), Other Climate Change Scenario, Specify
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