Skip Navigation
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.


The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Internet Explorer is no longer a supported browser.

This website may not display properly with Internet Explorer. For the best experience, please use a more recent browser such as the latest versions of Google Chrome, Microsoft Edge, and/or Mozilla Firefox. Thank you.

Your Environment. Your Health.

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Carmona-Castro O, Moo-Llanes DA, Ramsey JM
Medical and Veterinary Entomology. 32 (1): 84-101

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050.

Expand Collapse Abstract

Resource Description

    Meteorological Factor, Seasonality, Temperature
    • Temperature: Heat
    Non-United States, United States
    • Non-United States: Non-U.S. North America
    Infectious Disease
    • Infectious Disease: Vectorborne Disease
    Outcome Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
to Top