Title: Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.

Authors: DeFelice, Nicholas B; Little, Eliza; Campbell, Scott R; Shaman, Jeffrey

Published In Nat Commun, (2017 Feb 24)

Abstract: West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.

PubMed ID: 28233783

MeSH Terms: Animals; Culicidae/virology*; Disease Outbreaks*; Epidemiological Monitoring; Female; Forecasting/methods; Humans; Models, Biological; Mosquito Vectors/virology*; Retrospective Studies; Seasons; United States/epidemiology; West Nile Fever/epidemiology*; West Nile Fever/transmission; West Nile Fever/virology; West Nile virus/pathogenicity*