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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Knorr W, Dentener F, Hantson S, Jiang LW, Klimont Z, Arneth A
2016
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 16 (9): 5685-5703

Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire-dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutants to arrive at air pollutant emission projections for several time slices during the 21st century. The results indicate moderate wildfire-driven emission increases until 2050, but there is a possibility of large increases until the last decades of this century at high levels of climate change. We identify southern and north-eastern Europe as potential areas where wildfires may surpass anthropogenic pollution sources during the summer months. Under a scenario of high levels of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP, 8.5), emissions from wildfires in central and northern Portugal and possibly southern Italy and along the west coast of the Balkan peninsula are projected to reach levels that could affect annual mean particulate matter concentrations enough to be relevant for meeting WHO air quality targets.

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Resource Description

    Air Pollution, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Seasonality
    • Air Pollution, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Seasonality: Particulate Matter, Wildfire Smoke
    • Air Pollution, Extreme Weather-Related Event or Disaster, Seasonality: Wildfire
    Forest
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Europe
    Exposure Change Prediction
    Long-Term (>10 years)
    Research Article
    Policy
    Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)
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