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Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal Ambient temperature and mortality: An international study in four capital cities of East Asia

Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal

Chung JY, Honda Y, Hong YC, Pan XC, Guo YL, Kim H
2009
The Science of The Total Environment. 408 (2): 390-396

Extreme ambient temperature has been associated with increased daily mortality across the world. We describe the ambient temperature-mortality association for four capital cities in East Asia, Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, and Taipei, and identify a threshold temperature for each city and the percent increase in mortality. We adapted generalized linear modeling with natural cubic splines (GLM+NS) to examine the association between daily mean apparent temperature (AT) and total mortality, as well as mortality due to respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular (CVD) causes in a threshold model. We conducted a time-series analysis adjusting for day of the week and long-term time trend. The study period differed by city. The threshold temperature for all seasons was estimated to be 30.1-33.5 degrees C, 31.3-32.3 degrees C, 29.4-30.8 degrees C, and 25.2 degrees -31.5 degrees C for Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, and Taipei, respectively, on the same day. For the mean daily AT increase of 1 degrees C above the thresholds in Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei, estimated percentage increases in daily total mortality were 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI)=2.2-3.1), 1.7 (95% CI=1.5-2.0), and 4.3 (95% CI=2.9-5.7), respectively. Beijing provided no total mortality counts. Estimated percentage increases were 2.7-10.5 for RD mortality, 1.1-9.3 for CVD mortality in 4 cities. This study identified increased mortality due to exposure to elevated AT. The importance of effects of AT and city-specific threshold temperatures suggests that analyses of the impact of climate change should take regional differences into consideration.

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Resource Description

    Meteorological Factor, Temperature
    • Meteorological Factor, Temperature: Heat
    Ocean/Coastal, Urban
    Non-United States
    • Non-United States: Asia
    Cardiovascular Impact, Morbidity/Mortality, Respiratory Impact
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Morbidity/Mortality, Respiratory Impact: Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify
      • Other Cardiovascular Impact, Specify: cardiovascular mortality
      Cardiovascular Disease (other)
    • Cardiovascular Impact, Morbidity/Mortality, Respiratory Impact: Other Respiratory Impact, Specify
      • Other Respiratory Impact, Specify: respiratory mortality
      Respiratory Condition (other)
    Research Article
    Adaptation
    • Adaptation: Adaptation Co-Benefit/Co-Harm, Resilience
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